Ukraine invasion hits Europe airline bookings more than global average

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Abstract

  • Europe has 20.2 million seats this week, down 29% vs 28.4 million in the identical week of 2019.
  • Europe continues to be fifth within the regional rating on this measure.
  • Europe’s 1Q2022 capability is projected at 74% of 2019 ranges, and 2Q2022’s projection is 89%.
  • Schedules nonetheless don’t mirror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • IATA: international airline bookings fell 8% week-on-week when Russia invaded Ukraine, and bookings in Europe fell by 14%.

Europe has 20.2 million seats vs 28.4 million on this week in 2019 – down 29%

Within the week commencing 14-Mar-2022 complete European seat capability is scheduled to be 20.2 million, based on OAG schedules and CAPA seat configurations. That is 28.8% under the 28.4 million seats of the equal week of 2019.

That is solely 0.5ppts worse than final week, however that is now the second successive 0.5ppt decline after a 12.7ppt enchancment over the earlier 5 weeks.

This week’s complete seat capability for Europe is break up between 5.8 million home seats, versus 7.4 million within the equal week of 2019; and 14.4 million worldwide seats, versus 21.0 million in 2019.

Europe’s home seats are down by 22.3% versus 2019, in contrast with -20.8% final week.

Worldwide seat capability is down by 31.1% versus 2019, versus final week’s -31.0%.

 

Europe continues to be fifth within the regional rating by capability as proportion of 2019

Europe stays fifth within the rating of areas measured by seats as a proportion of 2019 ranges this week.

With capability down by 28.8%, Europe is 2.4ppts higher than Asia Pacific, the place capability is down by 31.2%. Center East seat depend is down by 23.1%; capability is down by 17.0% in Africa, by 14.0% in North America, and by 9.6% in Latin America.

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The Center East has taken an upward step within the development within the week of 14-Mar-2022, whereas Latin America has taken a downward step.

Europe, North America, Asia Pacific and Africa are broadly flat on final week, the week of 07-Mar-2022 (lower than 0.5ppt change).

 

Europe’s 1Q2022 capability is projected at 74% of 2019 ranges; 2Q2022 at 89%

Based on knowledge from OAG and CAPA, Europe’s capability as a proportion of 2019 ranges improved with every successive quarter of 2021.

It was 27% in 1Q2021, 29% in 2Q2021, 64% in 3Q2021, and 71% in 4Q2021.

Schedules for 1Q2022 presently undertaking seats at 74.4% of 1Q2019 ranges. That is down solely barely from the 74.7% projected per week in the past, 07-Mar-2022 (Mar-2022 capability projections are down by 1.2ppts since final week, to 71.7%).

Schedules for 2Q2022 presently undertaking seats at 89.1% of 1Q2019 ranges, which is a downward revision from 90.5% per week in the past (Apr-2022 has been revised all the way down to 83.1% from 86.4% week in the past, whereas Could-2022 and Jun-2022 are down by solely modest quantities).

Schedules nonetheless don’t mirror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Schedules filed with OAG by Europe’s airways nonetheless don’t seem like reflecting the results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – a degree that has been famous by CAPA Evaluation greater than as soon as for the reason that invasion.

See associated CAPA stories:

Ukraine seat capability derived from schedules filed with OAG and CAPA seat configurations for the week of 14-Mar-2022 has fallen to 16% of the equal week of 2019, from 19% final week.

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It is a massive change from 88% within the week of 21-Feb-2022, the final week earlier than the invasion of Ukraine, however EUROCONTROL knowledge document flight numbers at 0% within the seven days to 13-Mar-2022.

Weekly seat capability for Russia derived from schedules is at 65% this week, down from 78% final week and 83% within the week of 21-Feb-2022. The Russian Federation is just not a part of EUROCONTROL, so updated knowledge on flight numbers will not be out there.

Nonetheless, this doesn’t look low sufficient, given that the majority worldwide flights to/from Russia are suspended and but schedules knowledge nonetheless point out worldwide seat capability at 32% of 2019 ranges.

CAPA’s iconic Airline Chief Summit (Airways in Transition), is schedule for 7-8 Apr 2022 in Manchester, United Kingdom, to safe your ticket click on right here. 

IATA: international bookings fell 8% week-on-week when Russia invaded Ukraine…

The destructive influence of the invasion on European aviation is felt not solely in diminished exercise in Russia and Ukraine.

Extra broadly, sentiment in the direction of air journey usually suffers in instances of battle and uncertainty. This may be compounded by financial challenges, comparable to could end result from sanctions on Russia (which additionally have an effect on the nations imposing them).

Information from IATA Economics, utilizing DDS ticketing knowledge at 03-Mar-2022, point out that international airline bookings have suffered because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In mid-Feb-2022, earlier than the invasion, worldwide bookings had been above 50% of 2019 ranges and home bookings had been near 90% because the trade recovered from the Omicron wave of COVID-19.

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This modified within the week of 24-Feb-2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

World bookings fell by 8% from the earlier week, with home bookings down by 8% and worldwide bookings down by 9%. A number of the home discount was seasonal, pushed by China and the tip of the New Yr vacation.

…whereas bookings in Europe fell by 14%

Nevertheless, in Europe general, bookings fell by 14% week-on-week within the week of 24-Feb-2022, based on IATA.

Not surprisingly, journey to/from Jap Europe suffered the largest declines in demand as Ukraine and Moldova closed airspace completely and skilled extra refunds than new ticket gross sales in that week.

In Russia, bookings dropped by 52% week-on-week.

 

European airline schedules appear prone to be trimmed additional

IATA stated that there have been some will increase in demand for air journey from international locations neighbouring Ukraine: for outbound flights to Western Europe and to international locations with sizeable expat communities in Ukraine (e.g. India, Nigeria, Georgia and Morocco).

Nevertheless, this demand from folks leaving Ukraine didn’t offset the destructive demand impacts.

Furthermore, it’s prone to be transient, whereas the destructive impacts will final so long as the battle – presumably rather a lot longer.

European airline schedules appear prone to be trimmed additional, even when the underlying restoration from COVID-related worldwide journey restrictions stays broadly on target.

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